The Backgammon Quiz Book - #89 Part III

Here is the final roll for problem #89:


As I've mentioned before, I'm a cautious player... probably too cautious. Here's how Nick, Kansil and I played it:

Sean: bar/1/18
Nick: bar/1, 11/5
Kansil: bar/1, 11/5

Well, I'm the odd man out here, though Kansil gives me partial credit for my timid play. Kansil observes that if you are going to leave a blot, let it be a blot that works for you, so slot the 5 point. My play was based off of some advice I got from a different backgammon book (the title escapes me) that said that hit blots in you back area are less of a liability, because the checker doesn't have as far to go to make up lost ground.

For instance, if we played my move and white were to hit me on the 18 point, my pip count would go from 147 to 154, a loss of only 7 pips. If we played Kansil's pick and 5 point got hit, my pip count goes from 147 to 167, a loss of 20 pips. However, Kansil's move does have the advantage of securing an anchor in white's home area. In the end, I think I like Kansil's play better than mine.

Lets see what GNU BG says:

1. Rollout bar/24 11/5 MWC: 45.55%
0.359 0.081 0.008 - 0.641 0.256 0.025 CL 46.92% CF 45.55%
[0.002 0.001 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.04% CF 0.11%]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 818966479 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
2. Rollout bar/24 13/7 MWC: 44.46% ( -1.09%)
0.328 0.073 0.006 - 0.672 0.257 0.026 CL 46.46% CF 44.46%
[0.002 0.001 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL 0.04% CF 0.11%]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 818966479 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
3. Rollout bar/18 MWC: 43.68% ( -1.87%)
0.324 0.087 0.004 - 0.676 0.437 0.019 CL 45.37% CF 43.68%
[0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL 0.00% CF 0.00%]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 818966479 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Looks like Kansil's pick held up to the rollout!