The Backgammon Quiz Book - #89 Part II

Continuing with the second roll for problem 89 in Prince Joli Kansil's The Backgammon Quiz Book.

Hmmm... 3-2. My instinct is play it safe with bar/22, 24/22. A more aggressive play might be bar/22, 11/9, or even splitting your mid-point with 13/11. As I look back at games I've played, I feel that conservatism is my biggest fault... there are times when courage is required at the table if you want to win. However, black is down 24 pips and getting hit again, perhaps even twice, would be a game ending situation, so I'm going to play it safe. "Nick", the previous owner of my copy of Kansil's book, apparently felt the same:

Sean: bar/22, 24/22
Nick: bar/22, 24/22
Kansil: bar/22, 24/22

Again, the three of us are in agreement. But the real question is gnu-bg's roll out:

1. Rollout bar/22 24/22 Eq.: -0.158
0.463 0.108 0.004 - 0.537 0.136 0.004

2. Rollout bar/22 13/11 Eq.: -1.000 ( -0.842)
0.321 0.090 0.004 - 0.679 0.415 0.023

3. Rollout bar/22 11/9 Eq.: -1.000 ( -0.842)
0.322 0.092 0.004 - 0.678 0.430 0.024

Well, you can see what gnu-bg thought of my more aggressive plays... both almost equally bad, with only 0.321 chance of winning. Not that the recommended play is much better, but it is a lot closer to 50% than the others.